{"id":23828,"date":"2024-01-11T22:23:38","date_gmt":"2024-01-11T21:23:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/?p=23828"},"modified":"2024-01-16T22:41:41","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T21:41:41","slug":"hospodarske-turbulence-ohrozuji-rust-nemeckeho-automobiloveho-prumyslu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/en\/hospodarske-turbulence-ohrozuji-rust-nemeckeho-automobiloveho-prumyslu\/","title":{"rendered":"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 turbulence ohro\u017euj\u00ed r\u016fst n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u011bmecko je historicky synonymem pro vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a vysok\u00fd prodej automobil\u016f. V tomto ohledu jsou jeho ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my pozoruhodn\u00e9. Jeho v\u00fdroba a prodejn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla jsou pomal\u00e1, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v roce 2023 budou dom\u00e1c\u00ed prodeje st\u00e1le o 24 % ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce 2019. \u00dadaje Statista p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed stagnaci dom\u00e1c\u00edho trhu v letech 2024 a\u017e 2028, stejn\u011b jako m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles tr\u017en\u00ed hodnoty ze 110,6 miliardy USD na 103,5 miliardy USD.<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159echod n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu na elektrick\u00e1 vozidla (EV) je rovn\u011b\u017e opo\u017ed\u011bn. Tesla z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 na trhu s elektromobily dominantn\u00ed – podle pr\u016fzkumu trhu Counterpoint prod\u00e1 v roce 2023 zhruba 19 % v\u0161ech elektromobil\u016f -, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e na vzestupu je i \u0159ada \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch zna\u010dek, jako je BYD, od nich\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 zisky. Anal\u00fdza spole\u010dnosti CleanTechnica z konce roku 2023 toti\u017e zjistila, \u017ee modelu Y spole\u010dnosti Tesla se prodalo v\u00edce ne\u017e \u0161estkr\u00e1t v\u00edce kus\u016f (772 364) ne\u017e nejprod\u00e1van\u011bj\u0161\u00edho elektromobilu zna\u010dky Volkswagen, modelu ID.4 (120 154).<\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm glob\u00e1ln\u00ed faktory, jako je rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a n\u00e1sledky pandemie COVID-19, nad\u00e1le vrhaj\u00ed p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed st\u00edny nedostatku dod\u00e1vek energie a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch ot\u0159es\u016f. Jak\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt budoucnost n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu v kombinaci s jeho vlastn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my, v\u010detn\u011b pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed s modernizac\u00ed zastaral\u00e9 infrastruktury v\u00fdzkumu a v\u00fdvoje a v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1kladny?<\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed turbulence<\/h3>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00fd automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl za\u017eil v roce 2011 sv\u016fj nej\u00farodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rok, kdy podle statistiky Statista vyrobil rekordn\u00edch 5,87 milionu automobil\u016f. V roce 2022 to bylo 2,65 milionu, co\u017e je nejm\u00e9n\u011b za v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku 2023 do\u0161lo pouze k mal\u00e9mu procentu\u00e1ln\u00edmu zlep\u0161en\u00ed. V\u00fdznam n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu pro celkov\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed zem\u011b nelze podce\u0148ovat. V automobilov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu pracuje 7 % obyvatel zem\u011b a automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl se pod\u00edl\u00ed 5 % na HDP zem\u011b. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, v USA tvo\u0159\u00ed 3 % a ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii 0,6 % HDP.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Volkswagen ID.4 je nejprod\u00e1van\u011bj\u0161\u00edm elektromobilem v N\u011bmecku, p\u0159esto jeho prodeje zaost\u00e1vaj\u00ed za modelem Y od Tesly a n\u011bkolika \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi zna\u010dkami.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u0158ada faktor\u016f, kter\u00e9 ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed n\u011bmeckou automobilovou ekonomiku, je vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho p\u016fvodu. “Rozs\u00e1hl\u00e1 makroekonomick\u00e1 situace po\u0161kodila v\u0161echny st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti,” nazna\u010duje Harald Proff, vedouc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho automobilov\u00e9ho sektoru spole\u010dnosti Deloitte. “Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed recese, dv\u011b v\u00e1lky a krize v oblasti mikro\u010dip\u016f a energetiky.” Uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee velk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem byla p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost na rusk\u00e9m plynu – podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed energetick\u00e9 agentury N\u011bmecko v roce 2020 dovezlo 42,6 milionu metr\u016f krychlov\u00fdch, co\u017e je v\u00edce ne\u017e kter\u00e1koli jin\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 zem\u011b -, co\u017e vedlo k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m a nedostatku dod\u00e1vek.<\/p>\n

Ve h\u0159e jsou v\u0161ak i dal\u0161\u00ed, m\u00edstn\u00ed aspekty. S t\u00edm, jak se zrychluje revoluce v oblasti elektromobil\u016f, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zhor\u0161uje probl\u00e9my automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, kter\u00fd s n\u00ed mus\u00ed dr\u017eet krok. Vl\u00e1da, kter\u00e1 zpo\u010d\u00e1tku dotovala p\u0159echod na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed trh poskytov\u00e1n\u00edm slev a\u017e do v\u00fd\u0161e 6 750 eur (7 415 USD) na n\u00e1kup elektromobil\u016f, tento program k 1. lednu 2024 n\u00e1hle ukon\u010dila. Toto rozhodnut\u00ed bylo \u00fasporn\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm v rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 krizi vyvolan\u00e9 jej\u00edm \u00fastavn\u00edm soudem, kter\u00fd v listopadu 2023 rozhodl, \u017ee pl\u00e1novan\u00fd fond klimatick\u00fdch projekt\u016f ve v\u00fd\u0161i 60 miliard eur je nez\u00e1konn\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Problematick\u00fd p\u0159echod<\/h3>\n

“Dlouhodob\u011b zde st\u00e1le pot\u0159ebujeme spolehliv\u00e9 r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky, jinak se rychl\u00fd n\u00e1b\u011bh elektromobil\u016f nezda\u0159\u00ed,” prohl\u00e1sil Thomas Peckruhn, viceprezident n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu (ZDK). “Pokud m\u00e1te syst\u00e9m dotac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jsou n\u00e1sledn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eeny, z\u00edsk\u00e1te nafouknut\u00fd po\u010det lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed si kupuj\u00ed automobily, kdy\u017e dotace skon\u010d\u00ed, a pak velk\u00fd pokles,” dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Proff.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee ukon\u010den\u00ed dotac\u00ed nen\u00ed jednozna\u010dn\u011b dobrou zpr\u00e1vou, William Roberts, vedouc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumu automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu ve spole\u010dnosti Rho Motion, kter\u00e1 se zab\u00fdv\u00e1 anal\u00fdzou trhu s elektrick\u00fdmi vozidly a bateriemi, se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee na vin\u011b jsou i n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed v\u00fdrobci OEM. “Skupina Volkswagen vyr\u00e1b\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed po\u010det n\u011bmeck\u00fdch elektromobil\u016f a jej\u00ed nab\u00eddka nen\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u00e1 pro rychle se rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed trh,” \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. “Od model\u016f ID.3 a ID.4 nedo\u0161lo k velk\u00e9mu pokroku; neposkytl mo\u017enosti nov\u00e9 generace, a to zbrzdilo r\u016fst.”<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je “jedine\u010dn\u00e9” j\u00e1dro n\u011bmeck\u00e9 infrastruktury pro v\u00fdzkum a v\u00fdvoj. “To je absolutn\u00ed p\u00e1te\u0159\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 ekonomiky,” \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Proff, “a nyn\u00ed mus\u00ed N\u011bmecko v\u0161e p\u0159esunout na elektrick\u00e9 technologie, baterie a softwarov\u011b definovan\u00e1 centra.” Nazna\u010duje, \u017ee v\u00fdrobci OEM a univerzity “pracuj\u00ed jako o \u017eivot, aby dohnali ztr\u00e1tu a dos\u00e1hli spr\u00e1vn\u00e9 rovnov\u00e1hy v oblasti v\u00fdzkumu, v\u00fdvoje a testov\u00e1n\u00ed”.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco N\u011bmecko se pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s vlastn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my, Tesla a \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci OEM se budou sna\u017eit roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u016fj pod\u00edl na trhu s elektromobily. Podle Robertse se N\u011bmecko mo\u017en\u00e1 bude muset sm\u00ed\u0159it s t\u00edm, \u017ee pot\u0159ebuje pomoc. “P\u0159ed 30 lety nab\u00eddl Volkswagen \u010c\u00edn\u011b vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed odborn\u00e9 znalosti a technologie. Od t\u00e9 doby se v\u0161ak definice automobilu zcela zm\u011bnila a \u010c\u00edna ji\u017e nen\u00ed hor\u0161\u00ed.” N\u011bmecko m\u00e1 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b 12% pod\u00edl na trhu, ale pouze 3% penetraci elektromobil\u016f, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u010c\u00edna expanduje mnohem rychleji, tak\u017ee m\u00e1 p\u0159ed sebou spoustu pr\u00e1ce. “Mus\u00edte se pt\u00e1t, kde ho to v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m horizontu zanech\u00e1 a jak to m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit evropsk\u00e9 investice do elektromobil\u016f v t\u00e9to zemi,” dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Roberts.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed kroky<\/h3>\n

“Ka\u017ed\u00e1 automobilka s glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi c\u00edli mus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edtomna na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m trhu a v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed by byla velmi spokojena s n\u011bmeck\u00fdmi prodejn\u00edmi \u010d\u00edsly v \u010c\u00edn\u011b,” \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Proff. P\u0159esto se mus\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b zlep\u0161it, aby N\u011bmecko z\u00edskalo zp\u011bt ztracen\u00e9 pozice. “\u010c\u00edna je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm trhem pro cel\u00fd n\u011bmeck\u00fd automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a v tomto okam\u017eiku se jedn\u00e1 o kritick\u00fd okam\u017eik.”<\/p>\n

Roberts zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee N\u011bmecko mus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159izp\u016fsobiv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a rychleji se rozhodovat. “U\u017e jsme vid\u011bli, jak n\u011bmeck\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti navazuj\u00ed partnerstv\u00ed s \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi v\u00fdrobci OEM. Pokud se jim poda\u0159\u00ed obr\u00e1tit dynamiku a vyu\u017e\u00edt \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 odborn\u00e9 znalosti, aby jim pomohly na evropsk\u00e9m trhu s elektromobily, mohlo by to b\u00fdt kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9,” \u0159\u00edk\u00e1. “Zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na softwarov\u011b definovan\u00e1 vozidla a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161eho vlastn\u00edmi silami je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, ale aby mohly konkurovat, pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed lep\u0161\u00ed kr\u00e1tkodobou flexibilitu.”<\/p>\n

“Auto m\u00e1 30 000 kus\u016f hardwaru a je to tektonick\u00fd posun od n\u011bj k softwaru,” navrhuje Proff. “To je kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 sou\u010d\u00e1st, ale jak\u00e9 architektury pou\u017eijete? Kte\u0159\u00ed partne\u0159i jsou nejvhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a jak\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup zvol\u00edte?” Jak se N\u011bmecko s touto hrozivou \u0159adou ekonomick\u00fdch p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1, se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nejist\u00e9. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je v s\u00e1zce ekonomick\u00e9 zdrav\u00ed zem\u011b, nep\u0159ipad\u00e1 v \u00favahu selh\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zdroj: automotiveworld.com<\/p>\n

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N\u011bmecko je historicky synonymem pro vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a vysok\u00fd prodej automobil\u016f. V tomto ohledu jsou jeho ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my pozoruhodn\u00e9. Jeho v\u00fdroba a prodejn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla jsou pomal\u00e1, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v roce 2023 budou dom\u00e1c\u00ed prodeje st\u00e1le o 24 % ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce 2019. \u00dadaje Statista p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed stagnaci dom\u00e1c\u00edho trhu v letech 2024 a\u017e 2028, stejn\u011b […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":23829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"kategorie_prispevku":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 turbulence ohro\u017euj\u00ed r\u016fst n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu | Autoklastr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/hospodarske-turbulence-ohrozuji-rust-nemeckeho-automobiloveho-prumyslu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 turbulence ohro\u017euj\u00ed r\u016fst n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"N\u011bmecko je historicky synonymem pro vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl a vysok\u00fd prodej automobil\u016f. 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