{"id":28536,"date":"2025-02-07T21:06:56","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T20:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/?p=28536"},"modified":"2025-02-12T21:26:51","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T20:26:51","slug":"bain-globalni-kapacita-baterii-do-roku-2030-prekroci-4-100-gwh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/bain-globalni-kapacita-baterii-do-roku-2030-prekroci-4-100-gwh\/","title":{"rendered":"Bain: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita bateri\u00ed do roku 2030 p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 4 100 GWh"},"content":{"rendered":"

Zaveden\u00ed elektromobil\u016f do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho provozu vyvol\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst kapacity bateri\u00ed. Spole\u010dnost Bain & Company odhaduje, \u017ee do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hne 4 100 GWh, co\u017e je \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobek \u00farovn\u011b z roku 2023. Uspokojen\u00ed t\u00e9to popt\u00e1vky bude vy\u017eadovat neb\u00fdval\u00e9 investice do v\u00fdrobn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 konkurence mezi st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi chemick\u00fdmi typy bateri\u00ed, jako jsou lithium-\u017eelezo-fosf\u00e1tov\u00e9 (LFP), a n\u00e1stupem nov\u00fdch alternativ, jako jsou sod\u00edkov\u00e9 baterie s vysokou hustotou a polovodi\u010dov\u00e9 baterie, v\u0161ak p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nejistotu. V\u00fdrobci automobil\u016f se mus\u00ed rozhodnout, kter\u00e1 chemie nejl\u00e9pe vyhovuje jejich pot\u0159eb\u00e1m a kde se budou baterie vyr\u00e1b\u011bt. Mnoh\u00e1 z t\u011bchto rozhodnut\u00ed jsou zat\u00edm nejist\u00e1, ale Mahadevan Seetharaman, partner v odd\u011blen\u00ed pokro\u010dil\u00fdch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch slu\u017eeb spole\u010dnosti Bain, zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee k uspokojen\u00ed rostouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vky bude zapot\u0159eb\u00ed skute\u010dn\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edho \u00fasil\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Celosv\u011btov\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Seetharaman \u0159ekl \u010dasopisu Automotive World, \u017ee spole\u010dn\u00e1 snaha o roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity bateri\u00ed pom\u016f\u017ee vy\u0159e\u0161it n\u011bkter\u00e9 z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00ed v\u00fdrobci OEM, kdy\u017e se sna\u017e\u00ed z\u00edskat pro sv\u00e9 v\u00fdrobky na elektrick\u00fd pohon oblibu v hlavn\u00edm proudu. \u201ePokrok v technologii bateri\u00ed a v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacit\u011b vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed n\u011bkolik kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek n\u00e1kupu, v\u010detn\u011b po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f,\u201c vysv\u011btluje. \u201eObecn\u011bji \u0159e\u010deno, v\u011b\u0159\u00edme, \u017ee pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdkyv popt\u00e1vky po elektromobilech v Evrop\u011b a USA se ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu stabilizuje s dal\u0161\u00edm poklesem cen bateri\u00ed a sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.\u201c<\/p>\n

V\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacita v jednotliv\u00fdch regionech pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude jednotn\u00e1. Zat\u00edmco \u010c\u00edna bude i nad\u00e1le dominovat celosv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b \u201ed\u00edky siln\u00e9mu dom\u00e1c\u00edmu trhu\u201c, ostatn\u00ed regiony by ji mohly v omezen\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e dohnat. \u201eRelativn\u00ed pod\u00edl \u010c\u00edny na celosv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00fdrob\u011b bateri\u00ed se do konce desetilet\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v d\u016fsledku p\u0159esunu v\u00fdroby,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed Seethemaran. V dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku \u0159ada v\u00fdrobc\u016f OEM p\u0159esouv\u00e1 nebo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159esouv\u00e1 kapacity na v\u00fdrobu bateri\u00ed a materi\u00e1l\u016f pro jejich v\u00fdrobu v USA a EU. Spole\u010dnost Bain to \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b p\u0159i\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 politik\u00e1m poskytuj\u00edc\u00edm finan\u010dn\u00ed pob\u00eddky (p\u016fj\u010dky a granty) a tak\u00e9 cl\u016fm na dovoz z \u010c\u00edny.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"battery<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna ztrat\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho veden\u00ed na sv\u011btov\u00e9m trhu s bateriemi, ale ne v\u0161echno<\/em><\/p>\n

Rozlo\u017een\u00ed kapacity v r\u016fzn\u00fdch regionech bude tak\u00e9 ur\u010deno popt\u00e1vkou v okol\u00ed, kapit\u00e1lov\u00fdmi v\u00fddaji na gigawatthodinu a m\u00edstn\u00edm ekosyst\u00e9mem. \u201eKapacita se ji\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v oblastech, kde se tyto faktory p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b snoub\u00ed: v n\u00edzkon\u00e1kladov\u00fdch regionech v bl\u00edzkosti hlavn\u00edch center popt\u00e1vky, jako je Mexiko, Ma\u010farsko a Maroko,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Seethemaran.<\/p>\n

Chemik\u00e1lie v sout\u011b\u017ei<\/h3>\n

Spole\u010dnost Bain je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dena, \u017ee lithium-iontov\u00e9 baterie budou tvo\u0159it v\u00edce ne\u017e 90 % prodeje i v roce 2030. Ze dvou z\u00e1kladn\u00edch lithium-iontov\u00fdch chemik\u00e1li\u00ed z\u016fstane na vrcholu d\u00edky dob\u0159e zaveden\u00fdm dodavatelsk\u00fdm \u0159et\u011bzc\u016fm v \u010c\u00edn\u011b a rostouc\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed popt\u00e1vce. \u010c\u00edna v roce 2024 p\u0159ekro\u010dila hranici 12,86 milionu prodan\u00fdch elektromobil\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159edstavuje 35,5 % jej\u00edho celkov\u00e9ho tr\u017en\u00edho pod\u00edlu. Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost Kpler p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee pod\u00edl na trhu s elektromobily v \u010c\u00edn\u011b do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hne nebo p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 55 % a spolu s n\u00edm poroste i v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacita LFP.<\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnost Bain p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee dominantn\u00ed postaven\u00ed spole\u010dnosti LFP v \u010c\u00edn\u011b se bude do roku 2030 nad\u00e1le upev\u0148ovat, a to z n\u011bkolika d\u016fvod\u016f. Vzhledem k existuj\u00edc\u00edm odborn\u00fdm znalostem a s\u00edle dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce LFP je zde jen mal\u00e1 motivace k p\u0159echodu na jin\u00e9 lithium-iontov\u00e9 chemik\u00e1lie, jako je nikl-mangan-kobalt (NMC). NMC je druhou nejpou\u017e\u00edvan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed chemi\u00ed bateri\u00ed na sv\u011bt\u011b a jej\u00ed v\u00fdroba je soust\u0159ed\u011bna p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v Severn\u00ed Americe a Evrop\u011b. Vznik variant LFP s lep\u0161\u00ed hustotou energie, jako je lithium-mangan-\u017eelezo-fosf\u00e1t a M3P spole\u010dnosti CATL, tak\u00e9 vy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed komparativn\u00ed slabinu t\u00e9to chemie, pokud jde o dojezd, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Seethemaran.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity pro LFP v Evrop\u011b a USA v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b \u201et\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neexistuj\u00ed\u201c, dojde k ur\u010dit\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu, proto\u017ee v\u00fdrobci automobil\u016f hledaj\u00ed cenov\u011b dostupn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed alternativy k NMC. Mezi hlavn\u00ed v\u00fdhody LFP pat\u0159\u00ed srovnateln\u00e1 cenov\u00e1 dostupnost surovin, z nich\u017e jsou vyrobeny. Seethemaran v\u0161ak uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee vytvo\u0159en\u00ed m\u00edstn\u00ed v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity pro LFP bude n\u011bjakou dobu trvat: \u201eSt\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce \u017eeleza a fosforu jsou na Z\u00e1pad\u011b ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou podstatn\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b vysp\u011bl\u00e9.\u201c<\/p>\n

Bain p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u00fdrobci automobil\u016f se mohou obr\u00e1tit k nov\u00fdm chemick\u00fdm materi\u00e1l\u016fm NMC, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b nebo v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 vz\u00e1cn\u00e9 zeminy, aby smazali n\u00e1kladovou v\u00fdhodu LFP. Kobalt, drah\u00fd a pom\u011brn\u011b t\u011b\u017eko dostupn\u00fd prvek, kter\u00fd se v zemsk\u00e9 k\u016f\u0159e vyskytuje pouze v chemicky kombinovan\u00e9 form\u011b, je hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou n\u00e1kladov\u00e9 nev\u00fdhody NMC. Tento probl\u00e9m by mohlo pomoci vy\u0159e\u0161it \u00fasil\u00ed o zaveden\u00ed ob\u011bhov\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed s vyu\u017eit\u00edm zdokonalen\u00fdch recykla\u010dn\u00edch technologi\u00ed. \u201eV tomto desetilet\u00ed jsme byli sv\u011bdky vstupu v\u00edce hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f do t\u00e9to oblasti,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Seethemaran. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee baterie v obdob\u00ed do roku 2030 p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed svou \u017eivotnost, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzroste i objem vstupn\u00edch surovin pro NMC.<\/p>\n

Budouc\u00ed chemik\u00e1lie<\/h3>\n

Zat\u00edmco lithium-iontov\u00e9 baterie si pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b udr\u017e\u00ed dominantn\u00ed postaven\u00ed v prodeji bateri\u00ed pro elektromobily, objev\u00ed se nov\u00e9 alternativy – mezi nimi sod\u00edkov\u00e9 baterie. Jejich u\u017eite\u010dnost se v\u0161ak m\u016f\u017ee uk\u00e1zat jako omezen\u00e1. \u201eI kdy\u017e sod\u00edkovo-iontov\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky slibuj\u00ed ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cenu, vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost a schopnost pracovat p\u0159i ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch teplot\u00e1ch, maj\u00ed tak\u00e9 jednu kl\u00ed\u010dovou slabinu,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Seethemaran. \u201eV hustot\u011b energie prost\u011b nemohou konkurovat lithium-iontov\u00fdm, co\u017e bude br\u00e1nit jejich roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v elektrick\u00fdch vozidlech.\u201c<\/p>\n

Navzdory tomuto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9mu nedostatku p\u0159im\u011bla nal\u00e9havost cenov\u00e9 dostupnosti elektromobil\u016f n\u011bkter\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce automobil\u016f k tomu, aby tuto technologii zkoumali a dokonce uvedli na trh s\u00e9riov\u00e1 vozidla se sod\u00edkovo-iontov\u00fdmi \u010dl\u00e1nky. Zna\u010dka elektromobil\u016f Yiwei, n\u00e1stupce spole\u010dn\u00e9ho podniku spole\u010dnost\u00ed Volkswagen Anhui a JAC, uvedla v roce 2024 na trh dva mal\u00e9 m\u011bstsk\u00e9 vozy na sod\u00edkov\u00e9 baterie, oba s dojezdem a\u017e 301 km. Tato technologie tak\u00e9 pokra\u010duje v rozvoji d\u00edky investic\u00edm do sod\u00edkov\u00fdch polovodi\u010dov\u00fdch bateri\u00ed v n\u011bkolika zem\u00edch, v\u010detn\u011b Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie a \u010c\u00edny. Tato chemie je sice hor\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e lithiov\u00e9 polovodi\u010dov\u00e9 baterie, nicm\u00e9n\u011b by mohla zm\u00edrnit obavy t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se omezen\u00ed hustoty energie.<\/p>\n

Komer\u010dn\u011b vyu\u017eiteln\u00e9 polovodi\u010dov\u00e9 baterie byly v automobilov\u00e9m pr\u016fmyslu dlouho slibov\u00e1ny, ale nikdy nebyly realizov\u00e1ny. Seethemaran v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee se do roku 2030 nejen dostanou do v\u00fdroby, ale tak\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnou jednocifern\u00e9ho pod\u00edlu na trhu. \u201ePo \u010detn\u00fdch odkladech byli hr\u00e1\u010di teprve ned\u00e1vno schopni p\u0159edv\u00e9st prvn\u00ed d\u016fkazy konceptu, tak\u017ee komercializace je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b vzd\u00e1lena t\u0159i a\u017e \u010dty\u0159i roky.\u201c Polovodi\u010dov\u00e9 akumul\u00e1tory slibuj\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed hustotu energie ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s dosavadn\u00edm \u0161ampionem v oboru, NMC, spolu se zv\u00fd\u0161enou bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed, rychlej\u0161\u00edm nab\u00edjen\u00edm a potenci\u00e1ln\u011b del\u0161\u00edm \u017eivotn\u00edm cyklem.<\/p>\n

R\u016fst odv\u011btv\u00ed bateri\u00ed pro elektromobily je citliv\u00fd na geopolitick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj. Americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump sl\u00edbil, \u017ee zru\u0161\u00ed pob\u00eddky Bidenovy administrativy pro n\u00e1kup elektromobil\u016f a zru\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1kon o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed inflace v roce 2022, tak\u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed automobilov\u00ed hr\u00e1\u010di nemohou z\u00edskat finan\u010dn\u00ed podporu na sv\u00e9 elektrifika\u010dn\u00ed ambice. To by mohlo zbrzdit r\u016fst bateriov\u00e9ho sektoru v Severn\u00ed Americe, ale v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku jde o nepodstatn\u00fd detail. Seethemaran proto doch\u00e1z\u00ed k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee to nebude m\u00edt v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv na pokrok: \u201eJsme i nad\u00e1le p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hne glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita 4 100 GWh.\u201c<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zdroj: automotiveworld.com<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zaveden\u00ed elektromobil\u016f do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho provozu vyvol\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst kapacity bateri\u00ed. Spole\u010dnost Bain & Company odhaduje, \u017ee do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hne 4 100 GWh, co\u017e je \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobek \u00farovn\u011b z roku 2023. Uspokojen\u00ed t\u00e9to popt\u00e1vky bude vy\u017eadovat neb\u00fdval\u00e9 investice do v\u00fdrobn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 konkurence mezi st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi chemick\u00fdmi typy bateri\u00ed, jako jsou lithium-\u017eelezo-fosf\u00e1tov\u00e9 (LFP), a n\u00e1stupem nov\u00fdch alternativ, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":28537,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"kategorie_prispevku":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBain: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita bateri\u00ed do roku 2030 p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 4 100 GWh | Autoklastr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/bain-globalni-kapacita-baterii-do-roku-2030-prekroci-4-100-gwh\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bain: glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacita bateri\u00ed do roku 2030 p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 4 100 GWh\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Zaveden\u00ed elektromobil\u016f do b\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho provozu vyvol\u00e1 celosv\u011btov\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst kapacity bateri\u00ed. Spole\u010dnost Bain & Company odhaduje, \u017ee do roku 2030 dos\u00e1hne 4 100 GWh, co\u017e je \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobek \u00farovn\u011b z roku 2023. Uspokojen\u00ed t\u00e9to popt\u00e1vky bude vy\u017eadovat neb\u00fdval\u00e9 investice do v\u00fdrobn\u00edch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 konkurence mezi st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmi chemick\u00fdmi typy bateri\u00ed, jako jsou lithium-\u017eelezo-fosf\u00e1tov\u00e9 (LFP), a n\u00e1stupem nov\u00fdch alternativ, […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/bain-globalni-kapacita-baterii-do-roku-2030-prekroci-4-100-gwh\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Autoklastr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-07T20:06:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-12T20:26:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/U9wEsHZo_4x-scaled-2.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Karel B\u0159emek\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" 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