{"id":27487,"date":"2024-11-06T21:21:37","date_gmt":"2024-11-06T20:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/?p=27487"},"modified":"2024-11-06T21:21:37","modified_gmt":"2024-11-06T20:21:37","slug":"co-znamena-trumpuv-navrat-pro-automobilovy-prumysl","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/co-znamena-trumpuv-navrat-pro-automobilovy-prumysl\/","title":{"rendered":"Co znamen\u00e1 Trump\u016fv n\u00e1vrat pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl?"},"content":{"rendered":"

V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa v americk\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v roce 2024 by mohlo znamenat zlom pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl – v dobr\u00e9m i zl\u00e9m – na n\u011bkolika kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch front\u00e1ch. Jedny z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch zm\u011bn pro toto odv\u011btv\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nastanou v oblasti zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o elektromobily a technologie propojen\u00fdch automobil\u016f z \u010c\u00edny, a tak\u00e9 v oblasti pracovn\u00edch sil a pracovn\u00edch vztah\u016f, bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch p\u0159edpis\u016f a politiky \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst bylo j\u00e1drem Trumpovy kampan\u011b. \u201eTrump\u016fv p\u0159\u00edstup k automobilov\u00e9mu pr\u016fmyslu je \u201enejd\u0159\u00edve pracovn\u00ed m\u00edsta, a to hned\u201c, jeho\u017e hnac\u00ed silou jsou investice do sob\u011bsta\u010dnosti USA a vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst pro obyvatele,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Parminder Jassal, zakladatel laborato\u0159e Work + Learn Futures Lab p\u0159i Institutu pro budoucnost v kalifornsk\u00e9m Palo Altu. To zahrnuje zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na deregulaci, sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed, ochranu pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst v USA a pomoc pracovn\u00edk\u016fm p\u0159i z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch dovednost\u00ed. Dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jeho p\u0159\u00edstup m\u00e1 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdhody i omezen\u00ed: \u201eAmerika pot\u0159ebuje jak okam\u017eit\u00e9 investice do pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst, aby posunula sou\u010dasn\u00e1 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed do budoucnosti, tak i konkurenceschopn\u00e9 postaven\u00ed USA pro budouc\u00ed automobilov\u00e9 technologie.\u201c<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 t\u00e1bory se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed zejm\u00e9na posledn\u00edho bodu. Trump jako hlasit\u00fd pop\u00edra\u010d zm\u011bny klimatu vystupuje proti elektrick\u00fdm vozidl\u016fm a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201enejezd\u00ed daleko a stoj\u00ed majlant\u201c. Ve\u0159ejn\u00e1 podpora, stejn\u011b jako finan\u010dn\u00ed podpora ze strany \u0161\u00e9fa spole\u010dnosti Tesla Elona Muska, by mohla jeho r\u00e9toriku zam\u011b\u0159enou proti elektromobil\u016fm v budoucnu zm\u00edrnit. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee celkov\u00e1 \u00farove\u0148 podpory ekologick\u00fdch vozidel bude st\u00e1le klesat.<\/p>\n

Pozornost v\u011bnovan\u00e1 elektrick\u00fdm vozidl\u016fm<\/h3>\n

\u201eTrumpovo prezidentstv\u00ed p\u0159edstavuje ur\u010dit\u00e1 rizika pro zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed elektromobil\u016f,\u201c varuje Phoebe O’Hara, analyti\u010dka pro p\u0159echod na energetiku v agentu\u0159e Fastmarkets. \u201eTrump by mohl zaujmout restriktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj k mno\u017estv\u00ed model\u016f elektromobil\u016f, kter\u00e9 se kvalifikuj\u00ed pro dce\u0159in\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti s vyu\u017eit\u00edm p\u0159edpis\u016f o \u201ezahrani\u010dn\u00edch subjektech vzbuzuj\u00edc\u00edch obavy\u201c. Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 administrativa by tak\u00e9 mohla vyvolat zru\u0161en\u00ed emisn\u00edch norem pro vozidla Agentury pro ochranu \u017eivotn\u00edho prost\u0159ed\u00ed (EPA). Ty m\u011bly p\u0159isp\u011bt k tomu, \u017ee do roku 2032 bude 67 % vozidel na elektrick\u00fd pohon, tak\u017ee jejich zru\u0161en\u00ed jist\u011b ovlivn\u00ed celkov\u00fd r\u016fst a zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed elektromobil\u016f.\u201c<\/p>\n

Fastmarkets tak\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Trump ustoup\u00ed od sv\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f, aby do roku 2030 bylo a\u017e 50 % vl\u00e1dn\u00edho vozov\u00e9ho parku poh\u00e1n\u011bno elekt\u0159inou. Celkov\u011b O’Hara o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Trumpova vl\u00e1da povede k poklesu prodeje elektrick\u00fdch vozidel o 5 % do roku 2034 a k 7% poklesu popt\u00e1vky po lithiu v USA do roku 2034.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\"Trump\"<\/p>\n

Trump ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee zru\u0161\u00ed v\u0161echny nevyu\u017eit\u00e9 prost\u0159edky v r\u00e1mci IRA<\/em><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd n\u00e1zor zast\u00e1v\u00e1 i spole\u010dnost S&P Mobility, kter\u00e1 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da by obecn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eila d\u016fraz na elektromobily, hybridy a palivov\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky a naopak zv\u00fd\u0161ila z\u00e1jem o spalovac\u00ed motory a mild hybridy. Za Trumpovy vl\u00e1dy o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 zmrazen\u00ed emisn\u00ed legislativy pro modelov\u00e9 roky (MY) 2028-2032, zachov\u00e1n\u00ed stabiln\u00edch p\u0159edpis\u016f stanoven\u00fdch pro MY2027 a\u017e MY 2032 a mo\u017en\u00e1 i pozd\u011bji. Agentura rovn\u011b\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Trumpova administrativa sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00e9 \u00falevy pro spot\u0159ebitele v r\u00e1mci z\u00e1kona o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed inflace (IRA) na polovinu a uzav\u0159e st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed mezeru v leasingu. A\u010dkoli ekologov\u00e9 nebudou nad\u0161eni, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se 6% n\u00e1r\u016fst celkov\u00e9ho objemu pr\u016fmyslu oproti dne\u0161n\u00edmu z\u00e1kladn\u00edmu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.<\/p>\n

Podle veter\u00e1na v oboru a v\u00fdkonn\u00e9ho analytika spole\u010dnosti iSeeCars Karla Brauera by zm\u011bna postoje mohla automobilk\u00e1m p\u0159in\u00e9st kr\u00e1tkodobou \u00falevu. \u201eSt\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed normy se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt na z\u00e1klad\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00e9 a kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 popt\u00e1vky po elektromobilech nerealistick\u00e9, co\u017e vystavuje v\u00fdrobce automobil\u016f finan\u010dn\u00edmu riziku, proto\u017ee se pokou\u0161ej\u00ed sladit sv\u00e9 produktov\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny s vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi po\u017eadavky a preferencemi z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1. \u201eN\u00e1klady na v\u00fdrobu elektrick\u00fdch vozidel jsou ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s tradi\u010dn\u00edmi benzinov\u00fdmi a hybridn\u00edmi modely podstatn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e sni\u017euje nebo dokonce eliminuje jejich zisk a d\u00e1le komplikuje cestu vp\u0159ed. Tyto faktory ji\u017e ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed zabezpe\u010den\u00ed \u0159ady v\u00fdrobc\u016f automobil\u016f po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, jak se projevilo v ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edch skupiny Volkswagen.\u201c<\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Trumpova v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Brauer o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee v tomto odv\u011btv\u00ed \u201et\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b dojde k odklonu od mand\u00e1t\u016f pro elektromobily, i kdy\u017e m\u00edra odklonu nen\u00ed zn\u00e1ma\u201c. Vzhledem k objemu prost\u0159edk\u016f, kter\u00e9 dom\u00e1c\u00ed i zahrani\u010dn\u00ed automobilky ji\u017e investovaly do v\u00fdroby elektromobil\u016f, a k n\u011bkolikalet\u00e9mu \u010dasov\u00e9mu horizontu pot\u0159ebn\u00e9mu pro zm\u011bnu v\u00fdrobn\u00edch pl\u00e1n\u016f, bude v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed pob\u00eddek a prodej\u016f elektromobil\u016f pro odv\u011btv\u00ed st\u00e1le n\u00e1kladn\u00e9.\u201c<\/p>\n

Agentura Moody’s neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 \u00fapln\u00fd obrat v politice pob\u00eddek pro elektromobily, ale varovala, \u017ee \u201eTrumpova administrativa pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zpomal\u00ed implementaci z\u00e1kona o investic\u00edch do infrastruktury a pracovn\u00edch m\u00edstech a z\u00e1kona IRA na \u00farovni agentur\u201c a \u017ee by mohlo doj\u00edt ke zru\u0161en\u00ed financov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00fdch fond\u016f \u010dist\u00e9 energie.<\/p>\n

\u201eTrump pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b up\u0159ednostn\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed v oblasti zm\u011bny klimatu,\u201c p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 Matthew Oxenford, vedouc\u00ed odd\u011blen\u00ed pro udr\u017eiteln\u00fd rozvoj v Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). \u201eJi\u017e pohrozil, \u017ee zru\u0161\u00ed IRA, ale mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b neud\u011bl\u00e1… proto\u017ee jinak by to jen vytvo\u0159ilo zmatek v investi\u010dn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed. Jeho politika bude zv\u00fdhod\u0148ovat energii z fosiln\u00edch paliv a odrazovat od investic do elektromobil\u016f.\u201c<\/p>\n

Obchod<\/h3>\n

Obchodn\u00ed politika by tak\u00e9 mohla doznat ur\u010dit\u00fdch zm\u011bn. Moody’s p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u201eaktivn\u00ed protekcionistickou politiku\u201c v\u016f\u010di Evrop\u011b ze strany nov\u00e9 administrativy a upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl je jedn\u00edm z nejzraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00ed. Na evropsk\u00e9 automobily dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 do USA se v sou\u010dasnosti vztahuje 2,5% clo. P\u0159esto\u017ee \u0159ada t\u011bchto zna\u010dek m\u00e1 v USA v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1vody, z nich\u017e by mohla v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel \u010derpat, net\u00fdk\u00e1 se to v\u0161ech. To se t\u00fdk\u00e1 i zna\u010dky Porsche, pro kterou americk\u00fd trh p\u0159edstavuje 27 % celosv\u011btov\u00fdch prodej\u016f v roce 2023. V\u00edce protekcionistick\u00e9 politiky v USA by tak\u00e9 mohlo p\u0159im\u011bt \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zna\u010dky k hled\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch tr\u017en\u00edch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed v Evrop\u011b.<\/p>\n

Barsali Bhattacharyya, \u0159editel pro pr\u016fmysl v EIU, rovn\u011b\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee obchodn\u00ed politika bude za Trumpa mnohem protekcionisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, a varuje, \u017ee \u201ecla budou m\u00edt pro v\u00fdrobce automobil\u016f velk\u00e9 d\u016fsledky\u201c.<\/p>\n

Nejistota<\/h3>\n

Agentura Moody’s varuje, \u017ee \u201epolitick\u00e9 rozpory v USA z\u016fstanou zako\u0159en\u011bn\u00e9\u201c, a to vzhledem k t\u011bsn\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku a rozd\u011blen\u00e9mu Kongresu. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b p\u0159evl\u00e1d\u00e1 v progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch nejistota, a to nikdy nen\u00ed dobr\u00e9 pro podnik\u00e1n\u00ed. \u201eNejistota spojen\u00e1 s politick\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami je dlouhodob\u011b jedn\u00edm z nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch aspekt\u016f veden\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti,\u201c poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 Brauer. Analytici S&P to opakuj\u00ed a poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed: \u201eNejistota spojen\u00e1 s regulacemi byla pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl jedn\u00edm z nejobt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch prvk\u016f a nejistota se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed i dnes… Dopady a souvisej\u00edc\u00ed nejistoty se dot\u00fdkaj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech aspekt\u016f odv\u011btv\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

V nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddnech a m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch bude potvrzeno v\u00edce podrobnost\u00ed o prezidentsk\u00e9 administrativ\u011b a Kongresu, co\u017e umo\u017en\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk\u016fm trhu z\u00edskat lep\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edstavu o tom, co lze v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u010dty\u0159ech letech o\u010dek\u00e1vat. \u201eA\u0165 u\u017e se politika a regulace zm\u011bn\u00ed nebo z\u016fstane stejn\u00e1, pr\u016fmysl pot\u0159ebuje konzistentn\u00ed r\u00e1mec, aby se mohl l\u00e9pe orientovat a pochopit, jak na americk\u00e9m trhu ziskov\u011b konkurovat,\u201c uzav\u00edr\u00e1 agentura S&P.<\/p>\n

\n

automotiveworld.com<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa v americk\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v roce 2024 by mohlo znamenat zlom pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl – v dobr\u00e9m i zl\u00e9m – na n\u011bkolika kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch front\u00e1ch. Jedny z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch zm\u011bn pro toto odv\u011btv\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nastanou v oblasti zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o elektromobily a technologie propojen\u00fdch automobil\u016f z \u010c\u00edny, a tak\u00e9 v oblasti […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":27488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"kategorie_prispevku":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCo znamen\u00e1 Trump\u016fv n\u00e1vrat pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl? | Autoklastr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/co-znamena-trumpuv-navrat-pro-automobilovy-prumysl\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Co znamen\u00e1 Trump\u016fv n\u00e1vrat pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Donalda Trumpa v americk\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v roce 2024 by mohlo znamenat zlom pro automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl – v dobr\u00e9m i zl\u00e9m – na n\u011bkolika kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch front\u00e1ch. 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