{"id":26723,"date":"2024-06-06T22:07:21","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T20:07:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/?p=26723"},"modified":"2024-06-09T22:16:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-09T20:16:06","slug":"analyza-obchodni-valka-s-cinou-evropske-automobilky-pred-ni-varuji","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/analyza-obchodni-valka-s-cinou-evropske-automobilky-pred-ni-varuji\/","title":{"rendered":"ANAL\u00ddZA: Obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka s \u010c\u00ednou? Evropsk\u00e9 automobilky p\u0159ed n\u00ed varuj\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

S\u00edl\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd vliv z\u00e1padn\u00ed automobilky znepokojuje, ale sou\u010dasn\u011b je pro n\u011b tamn\u00ed trh kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd. EU se nakonec rozhodla odlo\u017eit verdikt o uvalen\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cel na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 auta a\u017e na dobu po volb\u00e1ch do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu. Jak v\u0161e nakonec dopadne? Pro\u010d je v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00e1padn\u00edch automobilek proti tomu? A kdo k\u0159i\u010d\u00ed nejv\u00edce?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi Pekingem, Bruselem a Washingtonem ohledn\u011b obchodu s elektromobily v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b vzrostlo. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee EU se za p\u00e1r dn\u016f rozhodne, zda bude n\u00e1sledovat USA p\u0159i uvalen\u00ed dodate\u010dn\u00fdch cel na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdrobce automobil\u016f.<\/p>\n

Brusel nyn\u00ed dokon\u010duje vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry st\u00e1tn\u00ed podpora poskytovan\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednskou vl\u00e1dou pomohla elektromobil\u016fm z \u010c\u00edny porazit na trhu ty evropsk\u00e9. Rozhodnut\u00ed by pak mohlo v\u00e9st ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel. Term\u00edn ozn\u00e1men\u00ed v\u00fdsledk\u016f vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed byl p\u016fvodn\u011b do 5. \u010dervna, ale v\u0161e bylo odlo\u017eeno a\u017e na 10. \u010dervna, aby se probl\u00e9m ne\u0159e\u0161il ve fin\u00e1ln\u00ed f\u00e1zi voleb do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu. M\u016f\u017ee ale doj\u00edt k dal\u0161\u00edmu odkladu. Vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, ofici\u00e1ln\u011b zah\u00e1jen\u00e9 4. \u0159\u00edjna 2023, ale m\u016f\u017ee trvat a\u017e 13 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Komise p\u0159itom m\u016f\u017ee \u00fadajn\u011b ulo\u017eit prozat\u00edmn\u00ed antisubven\u010dn\u00ed cla i zp\u011btn\u011b za p\u0159edchoz\u00ed t\u0159i m\u011bs\u00edce.<\/p>\n

Pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee Evropsk\u00e1 unie zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 elektromobily dnes uplat\u0148ovan\u00e9 10% clo, v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzrostla pot\u00e9, co Evropsk\u00e1 komise na za\u010d\u00e1tku b\u0159ezna uvedla, \u017ee na\u0161la d\u016fkazy, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna poskytuje tamn\u00edm v\u00fdrobc\u016fm elektromobil\u016f nespravedliv\u00e9 dotace. Situace se ale vyv\u00edj\u00ed a opat\u0159en\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 nakonec nebudou tak velk\u00e1, aby \u010c\u00ednu \u201enerozhn\u011bvala\u201c. Ta p\u0159itom uplat\u0148uje na dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e1 auta clo ve v\u00fd\u0161i 15 %. Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm momentem je i fakt, \u017ee clo m\u00e1 b\u00fdt jen do\u010dasn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Restrikce v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b je jednou z m\u00e1la v\u011bc\u00ed, na kter\u00e9 se shodne lev\u00e1 i prav\u00e1 strana politick\u00e9ho spektra, a to jak v Evrop\u011b, tak v USA, kde Joe Biden v r\u00e1mci prezidentsk\u00e9ho kl\u00e1n\u00ed s Donaldem Trumpem zv\u00fd\u0161il clo na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 elektromobily a jejich komponenty z 25 na horentn\u00edch 100 %. Prakticky \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 se tam ale nedov\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed. Tamn\u00ed cenov\u00e1 hladina aut je toti\u017e mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v Evrop\u011b, kter\u00e1 je pro \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zna\u010dky kv\u016fli dosa\u017een\u00ed vysok\u00fdch mar\u017e\u00ed exportn\u00edm trhem \u010d\u00edslo 1.<\/p>\n

Autopr\u016fmysl cla nechce<\/h3>\n

V\u00fdrobci v Evrop\u011b to ale vid\u00ed jinak, proto\u017ee se jich to na rozd\u00edl od politik\u016f p\u0159\u00edmo t\u00fdk\u00e1. Varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed neuv\u00e1\u017een\u00fdm krokem od autopr\u016fmyslu tak m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt z\u00e1sadn\u00ed. Zejm\u00e9na n\u011bmeck\u00e9 automobilky se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed toho, \u017ee jak\u00e9koli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel ze strany EU by m\u011blo za n\u00e1sledek odvetu z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 strany, a\u0165 u\u017e ve form\u011b recipro\u010dn\u00edho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel nebo negativn\u00edch reakc\u00ed z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f na jejich produkty. A nejv\u00edce by to postihlo n\u011bmeck\u00e9 zna\u010dky. Z\u00e1kazn\u00edci st\u00e1le v\u00edce up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zna\u010dky na \u00fakor t\u011bch \u201ep\u0159espoln\u00edch\u201c. A toto by mohl b\u00fdt zlomov\u00fd moment.<\/p>\n

V roce 2023 se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 29 % voz\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00fdch zna\u010dek prodalo v \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Volkswagen podle dat JATO Dynamics na nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm automobilov\u00e9m trhu na sv\u011bt\u011b realizuje p\u0159es 40 % sv\u00e9ho celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho odbytu, BMW a Mercedes pak p\u0159es t\u0159etinu. V absolutn\u00edch \u010d\u00edslech se jedn\u00e1 o vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed stovky tis\u00edc aut. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b BMW to bylo loni pln\u00fdch 824 832 kus\u016f. Obchodn\u00ed data nav\u00edc ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee cel\u00fdch 54 % z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu elektromobil\u016f do Evropy jsou vozy z\u00e1padn\u00edch zna\u010dek, mimo jin\u00e9 od BMW, Mini, Citro\u00ebnu, Dacie, Hondy, Lotusu \u010di zna\u010dky Cupra.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ed neuv\u00e1\u017een\u00fdmi kroky EU proto varuj\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9 BMW, Mercedesu, Volkswagenu, ale i Stellantisu, kte\u0159\u00ed necht\u011bj\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cla na dovoz \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch aut. \u0160\u00e9f BMW Zipse zase \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 hrozba elektromobil\u016f pro Evropu je \u201ep\u0159ehnan\u00e1\u201c. Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel Mercedesu Ola K\u00e4llenius \u0161el ned\u00e1vno je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le, kdy\u017e \u0159ekl, \u017ee cla na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 elektrick\u00e1 vozidla by m\u011bla b\u00fdt dokonce sn\u00ed\u017eena. \u201eNezvy\u0161ujte cla. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee bychom m\u011bli j\u00edt obr\u00e1cen\u011b: vezm\u011bte cla, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1me, a sni\u017ete je,\u201c \u0159ekl v b\u0159eznu listu Financial Times. Jako\u017eto p\u0159edstaviteli pr\u00e9miov\u00e9 zna\u010dky se to ale \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 pom\u011brn\u011b snadno. Hlavn\u00ed tlak je toti\u017e sp\u00ed\u0161e v oblasti mainstreamov\u00fdch zna\u010dek.<\/p>\n

Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel Renaultu Luca de Meo ned\u00e1vno napsal v otev\u0159en\u00e9m dopise EU o \u201en\u00e1poru\u201c \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch elektrick\u00fdch aut na Evropu. Popisoval v n\u011bm, \u017ee kompaktn\u00ed model vyroben\u00fd v \u010c\u00edn\u011b m\u00e1 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s ekvivalentn\u00edm evropsk\u00fdm autem n\u00e1kladovou v\u00fdhodu mezi 6 000 a 7 000 eur, tedy p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 25 procent celkov\u00e9 ceny. Ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na v\u00fdvoj v Asii ale hraje i evropsk\u00fdm v\u00fdrobc\u016fm do karet. Volkswagen a BMW v dubnu p\u0159isl\u00edbily v\u00edce ne\u017e 5 miliard dolar\u016f na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v\u00fdzkumu a v\u00fdroby v \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pomsta by byla \u201esladk\u00e1\u201c<\/h3>\n

Krom\u011b podpory automobilk\u00e1m od \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a region\u00e1ln\u00edch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f pouk\u00e1zal de Meo tak\u00e9 na ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00e9, materi\u00e1lov\u00e9 a mzdov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady, kter\u00e9 nesou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 automobilky ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s t\u011bmi v Evrop\u011b. \u0158ekl v\u0161ak, \u017ee Evropa bude muset \u201e\u0159\u00eddit\u201c vztahy s \u010c\u00ednou: \u201e\u00dapln\u011b jim zav\u0159\u00edt dve\u0159e by byla nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 reakce\u201c.<\/p>\n

V rozhovoru pro server Euractiv ale p\u0159ed restrikcemi varoval dokonce i n\u011bmeck\u00fd ministr dopravy Volker Wissing: \u201eZaveden\u00ed cel na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 elektromobily pro ochranu evropsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu by byl \u0161patn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k podpo\u0159e mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed konkurence\u201c.<\/p>\n

Evropa m\u00e1 p\u0159ed sebou volbu \u0161patn\u00e9ho, a je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00edho \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Pokud EU nezavede cla, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti zni\u010d\u00ed mnoho evropsk\u00fdch, pokud cla zavedou, zavede je i \u010c\u00edna a n\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti budou m\u00edt o jeden trh m\u00e9n\u011b.<\/p>\n

Peking je pr\u00fd p\u0159ipraven reagovat zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm dovozn\u00edch poplatk\u016f, na auta s velkoobjemov\u00fdmi motory, co\u017e jsou z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho pohledu v\u0161echna nad 2,5 l. U t\u011bchto aut (p\u0159es 30 % celkov\u00e9ho dovozu z EU) by se cla zv\u00fd\u0161ila ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch 15 % na 25 %, co\u017e je maximum povolen\u00e9 pravidly WTO. Loni se do \u010c\u00edny dovezlo \u010dtvrt milionu aut tohoto typu, zejm\u00e9na od Mercedesu a BMW. Do\u0161lo by ale zcela jist\u011b i ke zdra\u017een\u00ed komponent pro v Evrop\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9 elektromobily, co\u017e by se do cen evropsk\u00fdch model\u016f velmi z\u00e1sadn\u011b propsalo.<\/p>\n

Sami se pokus\u00ed \u201eb\u00fdt \u010c\u00ed\u0148any\u201c<\/h3>\n

Nem\u016f\u017ee\u0161-li je porazit, spoj se s nimi. Tohoto pravidla se dr\u017e\u00ed i evropsk\u00e9 zna\u010dky. Spole\u010dn\u00fdch projekt\u016f (Stellantis\/Leapmotor, VW\/Xpeng) nar\u016fst\u00e1, proto\u017ee zoufale pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed kv\u016fli cen\u011b a vysp\u011blosti vyu\u017e\u00edt jejich technologie. Stejn\u011b jako z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch zna\u010dek postavit v EU sv\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny. Finan\u010dn\u00ed \u0159editel VW Arno Antlitz o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 lokalizaci v\u00fdroby \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch automobilek v Evrop\u011b b\u011bhem dvou a\u017e t\u0159\u00ed let.<\/p>\n

Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editel Stellantisu Carlos Tavares, kter\u00fd d\u0159\u00edve volal po vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch clech na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 elektrick\u00e1 vozidla, po uzav\u0159en\u00ed partnerstv\u00ed s \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm Leapmotorem obr\u00e1til a \u0159ekl, \u017ee cla jsou hlavn\u00ed past\u00ed pro zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 se vydaj\u00ed touto cestou a dovol\u00ed sv\u00fdm automobilk\u00e1m vyhnout se restrukturalizaci, aby \u010delily v\u00fdzv\u011b \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1klady. \u201eSami se pokus\u00edme b\u00fdt \u010c\u00ed\u0148any,\u201c \u0159ekl Tavares na konferenci Reuters Events Automotive Europe v Mnichov\u011b. \u201eNam\u00edsto toho, abychom byli \u010dist\u011b defenzivn\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edv\u011b, chceme b\u00fdt jej\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

Tavares uvedl, \u017ee cla by pouze podpo\u0159ila inflaci v regionech, kde jsou uvalena, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dopad na prodej a v\u00fdrobu. Na konferenci Reuters Events Automotive Europe v Mnichov\u011b dodal, \u017ee cenov\u00fd boj s asijsk\u00fdmi rivaly bude \u201evelmi tvrd\u00fd\u201c.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00fd cukr a bi\u010d<\/h3>\n

Analytici o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee ob\u011b strany budou hledat dohodu. \u201eO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 strana, a u\u017e to vid\u00edme, pou\u017eije kombinaci cukru a bi\u010de, aby p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dila n\u011bkter\u00e9 kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, aby zatla\u010dily na Komisi EU,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Noah Barkin z Rhodium Group.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b N\u011bmecka budou m\u00edt \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 podporu i ve \u0160pan\u011blsku, kde se chystaj\u00ed mohutn\u011b investovat. Chery Auto, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 automobilka podle objemu exportu, spolupracuje se \u0161pan\u011blskou EV Motors na otev\u0159en\u00ed sv\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho evropsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1vodu v Katal\u00e1nsku. A tak\u00e9 z Ma\u010farska, kde BYD buduje tov\u00e1rnu na osobn\u00ed auta a hled\u00e1 um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed pro druh\u00fd evropsk\u00fd z\u00e1vod. St\u00e1tn\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost SAIC hled\u00e1 sv\u016fj prvn\u00ed z\u00e1vod v Evrop\u011b. CATL, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdrobce bateri\u00ed, navy\u0161uje v\u00fdrobu v Evrop\u011b a dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 bateri\u00ed pom\u00e1haj\u00ed Francii budovat jej\u00ed \u201e\u00fadol\u00ed bateri\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo ned\u016fv\u011bru v \u00fa\u010dinnost cel i \u0160v\u00e9dsko (Volvo). Premi\u00e9r Ulf Kristersson na konci bilater\u00e1ln\u00edho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s n\u011bmeck\u00fdm kancl\u00e9\u0159em Olafem Scholzem hovo\u0159il o \u201e\u0161patn\u00e9m n\u00e1padu\u201c, kter\u00fd riskuje ohro\u017een\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9ho obchodu. Scholz ji\u017e b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 dubnov\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy \u010c\u00edny \u0159ekl, \u017ee pro Evropany bude lep\u0161\u00ed tla\u010dit na \u010c\u00ednu, aby sn\u00ed\u017eila dovozn\u00ed cla na auta, ne\u017e zah\u00e1jit obchodn\u00ed spor. Je tedy ot\u00e1zkou, co ze zam\u00fd\u0161len\u00fdch restrikc\u00ed nakonec zbude. \u010c\u00edna nazna\u010dila, \u017ee p\u0159ipravuje alternativy pro budouc\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. P\u00e1ky proti zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu clu tedy budou z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti Evropy.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch 10 % v r\u00e1mci cel Evropsk\u00e9 unie nad r\u00e1mec st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho 10% poplatku by \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 v\u00fdvozce elektromobil\u016f st\u00e1lo podle obchodn\u00edch \u00fadaj\u016f z roku 2023 asi 1 miliardu dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Do\u010dasn\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed by mohlo b\u00fdt zpochybn\u011bno, nebo dokonce zru\u0161eno, pokud by se proti nim po \u010dty\u0159ech m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch postavil dostate\u010dn\u011b velk\u00fd pod\u00edl vl\u00e1d EU. Na rozd\u00edl od USA toti\u017e EU nen\u00ed federace a cla nejde \u0161mahem na\u0159\u00eddit tak, jak se tomu stalo v z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci ale \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee po\u010det \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch elektromobil\u016f dovezen\u00fdch do Evropy nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt v\u00fdrazn\u011b ovlivn\u011bn nov\u00fdmi cly z EU. \u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdrobci elektromobil\u016f je mohou p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt. Automobilky, jako je BYD, pr\u00fd maj\u00ed ve sv\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch zabudovanou dostate\u010dnou mar\u017ei, aby absorbovaly i 30% clo.<\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd \u00fastav v Kielu pomoc\u00ed ekonometrick\u00fdch simulac\u00ed zkoumal dopad nejen na obchodn\u00ed bilanci, ale i na evropskou produkci. Ve skute\u010dnosti by cla m\u011bla za okam\u017eit\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinek zpomalen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9ho dovozu, ale hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se pro koncov\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele uk\u00e1\u017eou jako kontraproduktivn\u00ed. V\u00fdsledkem by bylo, \u017ee by spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u010delili vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m elektromobil\u016f, nebo\u0165 evropsk\u00e1 produkce je v\u00fdrazn\u011b dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zdroj: idnes.cz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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