{"id":22557,"date":"2023-04-29T16:34:24","date_gmt":"2023-04-29T14:34:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/?p=22557"},"modified":"2023-05-03T16:39:14","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T14:39:14","slug":"ceska-ekonomika-je-z-nejhorsiho-venku-ukazala-analyza-komercni-banky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/ceska-ekonomika-je-z-nejhorsiho-venku-ukazala-analyza-komercni-banky\/","title":{"rendered":"\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika je z nejhor\u0161\u00edho venku, uk\u00e1zala anal\u00fdza Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomika se vrac\u00ed k r\u016fstu a inflaci pomohou porazit levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energie, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 analytick\u00fd t\u00fdm Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky ve sv\u00e9 nov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst je podle tamn\u00edch analytik\u016f patrn\u00fd od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku ekonomika p\u0159ekon\u00e1 sv\u00e9 p\u0159edpandemick\u00e9 maximum.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Obdob\u00ed vysok\u00e9 inflace a n\u00edzk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu se \u010ceska pomalu d\u00e1v\u00e1 sbohem. Ekonomov\u00e9 Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky ve sv\u00e9 \u010derstv\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s re\u00e1ln\u00fdm r\u016fstem \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky o 0,6 procenta. To je dvakr\u00e1t tolik ne\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala lednov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by mohla r\u016fst o 1,8 procenta. Proti p\u0159edchoz\u00ed progn\u00f3ze zlep\u0161ili tak\u00e9 v\u00fdhled inflace. Za cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok by se z p\u016fvodn\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch 12,9 procenta m\u011bla dostat na 11,8 procenta.<\/p>\n

\u201eKl\u00ed\u010dovou prom\u011bnnou, kter\u00e1 ovlivnila p\u0159\u00edpravu aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed makroekonomick\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy, byly ceny energi\u00ed,\u201c odhaluje hlavn\u00ed ekonom Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky Jan Vejm\u011blek. \u201eZat\u00edmco vloni extr\u00e9mn\u00ed zdra\u017een\u00ed energetick\u00fdch komodit v\u00fdznamn\u011b p\u0159isp\u011blo k inflaci i recesi, letos to bude naopak. Zkr\u00e1tka z padoucha se stal hrdina,\u201c dopl\u0148uje.<\/p>\n

Ekonomika zrychl\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Po cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok bude r\u016fst tuzemsk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed pomalu, ale jist\u011b zrychlovat, \u010dek\u00e1 progn\u00f3za. Mezi\u010dtvrtletn\u00ed dynamika za prvn\u00ed kvart\u00e1l dos\u00e1hne 0,2 procenta, v z\u00e1v\u011bru leto\u0161n\u00edho roku to ji\u017e bude 0,5 procenta. Pom\u016f\u017ee k tomu v\u00fdvoj u kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f, kter\u00e9 \u010cesko m\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\u201eV\u00fdsledky n\u011bmeck\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 v\u00fdroby jsou za prvn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku fam\u00f3zn\u00ed. Pomohly ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed, ustoupily pot\u00ed\u017ee v glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch a v neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b se projevilo siln\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 ekonomiky po ukon\u010den\u00ed pandemick\u00fdch uz\u00e1v\u011br,\u201c hodnot\u00ed Jana Steckerov\u00e1, ekonomka Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n

R\u016fst postupn\u011b podpo\u0159\u00ed tak\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti. \u201eSpot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed by se po p\u0159edchoz\u00edm hlubok\u00e9m poklesu m\u011bla zvy\u0161ovat po cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok. Obavy spot\u0159ebitel\u016f ohledn\u011b dopad\u016f vysok\u00fdch cen energi\u00ed ustoupily, inflace ji\u017e z\u0159ejm\u011b dos\u00e1hla sv\u00e9ho vrcholu a p\u0159\u00edjmovou situaci dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed by m\u011bl postupn\u011b vylep\u0161ovat zrychluj\u00edc\u00ed r\u016fst mezd,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed Martin G\u00fcrtler, ekonom KB.<\/p>\n

Inflace u\u017e je za vrcholem<\/h3>\n

Meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflace ji\u017e dos\u00e1hla sv\u00e9ho vrcholu a bude d\u00e1le klesat, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u00e1le progn\u00f3za. Letos sice v pr\u016fm\u011bru vyk\u00e1\u017ee necel\u00fdch dvan\u00e1ct procent, ale u\u017e v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce ji\u017e inflace klesne na dvouprocentn\u00ed c\u00edl \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky (\u010cNB).<\/p>\n

Zde velkou m\u011brou zap\u016fsob\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed na velkoobchodn\u00edch trz\u00edch, kter\u00e9 klesly na p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b a jednotliv\u00ed tuzem\u0161t\u00ed dodavatel\u00e9 ji\u017e za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed tento v\u00fdvoj zohled\u0148ovat v cen\u00e1ch pro kone\u010dn\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina se dosud nach\u00e1zela na \u00farovni vl\u00e1dn\u00edch cenov\u00fdch strop\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u201eO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee p\u0159eliv ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch velkoobchodn\u00edch cen energi\u00ed do t\u011bch spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch bude v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce pouze pozvoln\u00fd a k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu pr\u016fsaku dojde a\u017e na za\u010d\u00e1tku p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku. Celkov\u011b ale v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny energi\u00ed pomohou stla\u010dit inflaci sm\u011brem dol\u016f, v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce dokonce a\u017e na c\u00edl \u010cNB,\u201c popisuje o\u010dek\u00e1vanou strukturu v\u00fdvoje spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen G\u00fcrtler.<\/p>\n

Podobn\u011b makroekonomickou situaci v tuzemsku zmonitorovaly tak\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed instituce. Nap\u0159\u00edklad ministerstvo financ\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed makroekonomick\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze \u010dek\u00e1, \u017ee inflace bude letos v pr\u016fm\u011bru 10,9 procenta, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok 2,4 procenta. HDP podle resortu letos stoupne jen o 0,1 procenta, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok stoupne o t\u0159i.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 na z\u00e1klad\u011b sv\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy z leto\u0161n\u00edho \u00fanora tento rok s pr\u016fm\u011brnou inflac\u00ed 10,8 procenta, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok rovn\u011b\u017e kolem dvouprocentn\u00edho c\u00edle. HDP by m\u011bl letos je\u0161t\u011b klesnout o 0,3 procenta, pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok u\u017e ale vyhl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed r\u016fst o t\u0159i procenta.<\/p>\n

Koruna oslab\u00ed, deficit bude v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed n\u00e1vrat investor\u016f do st\u0159edoevropsk\u00e9ho regionu a o\u017eiven\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku pomohly korun\u011b dostat se v\u016f\u010di zahrani\u010dn\u00edm m\u011bn\u00e1m na nezvykle siln\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Progn\u00f3za ale o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee brzy oslab\u00ed. \u201eV ro\u010dn\u00edm horizontu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me jej\u00ed m\u00edrn\u00e9 oslaben\u00ed k 23,80 koruny za euro,\u201c odhaluje kurzov\u00fd v\u00fdhled Jarom\u00edr Gec, strat\u00e9g Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n

Vysoko pak podle anal\u00fdzy z\u016fstanou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, k jejich\u017e zm\u011bn\u00e1m se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i nemaj\u00ed. \u201ePrvn\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb \u010dek\u00e1me letos v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed. Na konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku by se podle n\u00e1s m\u011bla z\u00e1kladn\u00ed repo sazba pohybovat na 6,25 procenta a rovnov\u00e1\u017en\u00fdch t\u0159\u00ed procent dos\u00e1hne a\u017e na konci roku 2025,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 G\u00fcrtler.<\/p>\n

Ten z\u00e1rove\u0148 dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee j\u00e1drov\u00e1 inflace bude klesat jen velmi pomalu, k \u010demu\u017e p\u0159isp\u011bje vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst nomin\u00e1ln\u00edch mezd, kter\u00fd v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce v pr\u016fm\u011bru p\u0159es\u00e1hne deset procent.<\/p>\n

Analytici Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky tak\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee schodek st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu za leto\u0161ek p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161\u00ed 300 miliard. U\u017e deficit ve v\u00fd\u0161i 166,2 miliardy za prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed je v\u016fbec nejhor\u0161\u00edm vstupem do nov\u00e9ho roku v historii samostatn\u00e9 \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky.<\/p>\n

\u201eHranici 300 miliard korun podle n\u00e1s deficit letos pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed, a to alespo\u0148 o dvacet miliard, p\u0159esto\u017ee schv\u00e1len\u00fd schodek \u010din\u00ed 295 miliard,\u201c m\u00edn\u00ed Gec. Pod\u00edlet by se na tom m\u011bla mimo jin\u00e9 v p\u016fvodn\u00edm n\u00e1vrhu nezahrnut\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 valorizace starobn\u00edch d\u016fchod\u016f, ale i relativn\u011b utlumen\u00fd r\u016fst ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

\n

Zdroj: idnes.cz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomika se vrac\u00ed k r\u016fstu a inflaci pomohou porazit levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energie, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 analytick\u00fd t\u00fdm Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky ve sv\u00e9 nov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst je podle tamn\u00edch analytik\u016f patrn\u00fd od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku ekonomika p\u0159ekon\u00e1 sv\u00e9 p\u0159edpandemick\u00e9 maximum. Obdob\u00ed vysok\u00e9 inflace a n\u00edzk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu se \u010ceska pomalu d\u00e1v\u00e1 sbohem. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":22559,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"kategorie_prispevku":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika je z nejhor\u0161\u00edho venku, uk\u00e1zala anal\u00fdza Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky | Autoklastr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/ceska-ekonomika-je-z-nejhorsiho-venku-ukazala-analyza-komercni-banky\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika je z nejhor\u0161\u00edho venku, uk\u00e1zala anal\u00fdza Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ekonomika se vrac\u00ed k r\u016fstu a inflaci pomohou porazit levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energie, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 analytick\u00fd t\u00fdm Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky ve sv\u00e9 nov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst je podle tamn\u00edch analytik\u016f patrn\u00fd od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku ekonomika p\u0159ekon\u00e1 sv\u00e9 p\u0159edpandemick\u00e9 maximum. Obdob\u00ed vysok\u00e9 inflace a n\u00edzk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu se \u010ceska pomalu d\u00e1v\u00e1 sbohem. 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Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky[:] | Autoklastr","og_description":"Ekonomika se vrac\u00ed k r\u016fstu a inflaci pomohou porazit levn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energie, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 analytick\u00fd t\u00fdm Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky ve sv\u00e9 nov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst je podle tamn\u00edch analytik\u016f patrn\u00fd od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku, o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku ekonomika p\u0159ekon\u00e1 sv\u00e9 p\u0159edpandemick\u00e9 maximum. Obdob\u00ed vysok\u00e9 inflace a n\u00edzk\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu se \u010ceska pomalu d\u00e1v\u00e1 sbohem. 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