{"id":20730,"date":"2022-06-29T12:37:46","date_gmt":"2022-06-29T10:37:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/?p=20730"},"modified":"2022-06-30T12:24:14","modified_gmt":"2022-06-30T10:24:14","slug":"elektrifikace-by-mohla-znamenat-konec-spalovacich-motoru-do-roku-2035","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/elektrifikace-by-mohla-znamenat-konec-spalovacich-motoru-do-roku-2035\/","title":{"rendered":"Elektrifikace by mohla znamenat konec spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f do roku 2035"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u011bhem 19. konference Global Automotive Outlook spole\u010dnosti AlixPartner se Mark Wakefield a Elmar Kades, spolu<\/span>p\u0159edsedov\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 praxe v celosv\u011btov\u00e9 konzulta\u010dn\u00ed firm\u011b AlixPartners,<\/span> hovo\u0159ili o omezen\u00edch nab\u00eddky, uspokojov\u00e1n\u00ed popt\u00e1vky spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, v\u00fdrobn\u00edch probl\u00e9mech a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dominanci elektrifikace do roku 2035.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

V letech 2022 a\u017e 2026 m\u00e1 b\u00fdt investov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 546 miliard USD do elektrick\u00fdch vozidel (EV) a technologi\u00ed bateri\u00ed. To \u017ee to p\u0159edstavuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvojn\u00e1sobnou \u010d\u00e1stku oproti obdob\u00ed 2020\/24. Wakefield, p\u0159ezkoumal optimismus panuj\u00edc\u00ed v pr\u016fmyslu, \u017ee omezen\u00ed dod\u00e1vek polovodi\u010d\u016f by mohlo b\u00fdt vy\u0159e\u0161eno do roku 2023. Bohu\u017eel, jeho vlastn\u00ed n\u00e1zor je, \u017ee tento c\u00edl nelze splnit: \u201eNep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee nab\u00eddka bude vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e popt\u00e1vka do roku 2024. Zlep\u0161uje se to, ale probl\u00e9m prozat\u00edm nezmiz\u00ed.“<\/p>\n

Omezen\u00ed nab\u00eddky bude pokra\u010dovat<\/h3>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee celosv\u011btov\u00fd prodej automobil\u016f klesne z v\u00edce ne\u017e 82 milion\u016f kus\u016f v roce 2021 na 79 milion\u016f v roce 2022, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e v roce 2024 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00e1r\u016fst na 95 milion\u016f. Zadr\u017een\u00e1 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po EV v roce 2022 by nem\u011bla b\u00fdt nespr\u00e1vn\u011b ch\u00e1p\u00e1na jako okam\u017eit\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, proto\u017ee v\u00fdrobn\u00ed n\u00e1klady pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b porostou. Tak\u00e9 opakovan\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpady \u201e\u010dern\u00fdch labut\u00ed\u201c \u2013 nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 nebo neo\u010dek\u00e1vateln\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti \u2013 d\u00e1vaj\u00ed Wakefieldovi d\u016fvod v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee se na obzoru pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b objev\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Postupn\u00e9 p\u0159eorientov\u00e1n\u00ed ze spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f na elektrick\u00e9 tak\u00e9 zhor\u0161uj\u00ed omezen\u00ed. \u201ePo\u010det po\u017eadovan\u00fdch polovodi\u010d\u016f na vozidlo se spalovac\u00edm motorem se zvy\u0161uje. Ale pokud vezmeme v potaz EV, je toto \u010d\u00edslo asi desetkr\u00e1t zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed,\u201c vysv\u011btluje. Spot\u0159eba na vozidlo jako takov\u00e1 nen\u00ed st\u00e1l\u00e1 a m\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161e dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst. Konkr\u00e9tn\u011b ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech AlixPartners ozna\u010dila jako zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za nedostatek produkce p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed faktory, jako je popula\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst, obchodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a \u010c\u00ednou a rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.<\/p>\n

Uspokojen\u00ed popt\u00e1vky spot\u0159ebitel\u016f<\/h3>\n

Hrozba stagnuj\u00edc\u00edho r\u016fstu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd, inflace a klesaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnoty aktiv a akci\u00ed jsou definitivn\u00edmi d\u016fvody k obav\u00e1m \u2013 p\u0159esto Wakefield uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee je st\u00e1le optimistick\u00fd pokud jde o spot\u0159ebitelskou popt\u00e1vku. \u201eZam\u011bstnanost se vr\u00e1tila na p\u0159edchoz\u00ed \u00farove\u0148, \u010dist\u00e9 jm\u011bn\u00ed dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed je vysok\u00e9 a osobn\u00ed \u00faspory spot\u0159ebitel\u016f nashrom\u00e1\u017edily p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 2,5 miliardy USD. Tak\u017ee existuje studna, ze kter\u00e9 lze \u010derpat.“ V d\u016fsledku toho se zd\u00e1, \u017ee spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 k vlastnictv\u00ed elektrick\u00e9ho automobilu uplat\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup typu \u201ekde se d\u00e1 koupit?\u201c, na rozd\u00edl od \u201emohu si ho dovolit?\u201c<\/p>\n

Dostupnost, podpo\u0159en\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami \u00fav\u011br\u016f v obdob\u00ed 2022\/23, se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stane probl\u00e9mem v letech 2024\/25. AlixPartners po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 sou\u010dasnou \u010distou zadr\u017eenou spot\u0159ebitelskou popt\u00e1vku na americk\u00e9m trhu na \u010dty\u0159i miliony dolar\u016f, ale nab\u00eddka pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b do roku 2025 p\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vku, proto\u017ee deale\u0159i za\u010dnou vytv\u00e1\u0159et z\u00e1soby. Skute\u010dn\u00e1 zadr\u017eovan\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka \u2013 dva miliony, proto\u017ee popt\u00e1vka nen\u00ed statick\u00e1 \u2013 by mohla p\u0159ekonat probl\u00e9my s v\u00fdrobou b\u011bhem inflace, ale v tomto ohledu je t\u0159eba m\u00edrnit optimismus.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdroba \u010del\u00ed v\u00fdzv\u00e1m<\/h3>\n

AlixPartners p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 pro rok 2022 n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed prodeje vozidel: USA, 14,7 milionu; Evropa, 15,9 milionu; a \u010c\u00edna 23,4 milionu.<\/p>\n

Vyhl\u00eddky Evropy v roce 2023 zpomalila v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b. Podobn\u011b, p\u0159esto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna st\u00e1le vykazuje vysok\u00e9 hodnoty, zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za sv\u00fdmi vrcholy v roce 2010. \u201eV\u00fdroba z ruky do \u00fast vede k velmi neefektivn\u00ed v\u00fdrob\u011b,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Wakefield. \u201ePo\u010det lid\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch na jedno vozidlo je obrovsk\u00fd. V\u00fdrobci jsou motivov\u00e1ni k tomu, aby prod\u00e1vali ka\u017ed\u00e9 vyroben\u00e9 vozidlo, a vyv\u00edjej\u00ed tlak na dodavatele, aby ud\u011blali tot\u00e9\u017e.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledek tohoto posunu od \u201epush to pull\u201c ekonomiky b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvou let by mohl b\u00fdt pro dodavatele \u0161kodliv\u00fd. Cena surovin se zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u2014 v\u00fdrazn\u011b v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b materi\u00e1l\u016f pro baterie. Wakefield poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00fdrobci vyu\u017eili sv\u00e9ho neo\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho zisku sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm sv\u00e9ho \u010dist\u00e9ho dluhu o 103 miliard USD, zat\u00edmco dodavatel\u00e9 podobnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost nem\u011bli.<\/p>\n

Elektrifikace se dramaticky m\u011bn\u00ed<\/h3>\n

Kades zd\u016fraznil, \u017ee p\u0159echod k bateriov\u00fdm elektromobil\u016fm (BEV) je v pln\u00e9m proudu. Prodeje EV v roce 2021 celosv\u011btov\u011b vzrostly o 8,3 %. \u201eV prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2022 m\u00e1me t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 11% pod\u00edl EV a v\u011bt\u0161inu z toho tvo\u0159\u00ed BEV. V minulosti nebylo jasn\u00e9, zda hybridy usp\u011bj\u00ed, ale nyn\u00ed je ka\u017ed\u00e9mu \u2013 dokonce i spot\u0159ebiteli \u2013 jasn\u00e9, \u017ee jde o p\u0159echodovou technologii.\u201c<\/p>\n

Podle AlixPartners budou BEV tvo\u0159it p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 33 % prodej\u016f nov\u00fdch vozidel do roku 2028. Kades proto v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee se v\u00fdrobci m\u00edsto toho p\u0159esunou od zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed na \u201e\u010das uveden\u00ed na trh\u201c na cenovou konkurenceschopnost a efektivitu. Ziskovost ve velk\u00e9m se stane rozhoduj\u00edc\u00edm faktorem trval\u00e9ho \u00fasp\u011bchu a Tesla ji\u017e v tomto ohledu vede. \u201eDo roku 2024 bude na trhu v\u00edce ne\u017e 200 model\u016f EV; bude je m\u00edt ka\u017ed\u00fd v\u00fdrobce.\u201d Kades konkr\u00e9tn\u011b identifikuje Ford F-150 Lightning jako znamen\u00ed obecn\u00e9ho z\u00e1vazku k elektrifikaci: \u201eP\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety bylo nemysliteln\u00e9, \u017ee by se pick-upy elektrifikovaly, ale nyn\u00ed jsou v provozu.\u201c<\/p>\n

2035: konec spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f?<\/h3>\n

V posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch USA a EU u\u010dinily prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o z\u00e1m\u011bru zak\u00e1zat ve\u0161ker\u00fd budouc\u00ed prodej spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f od roku 2035. Kades je skeptick\u00fd \u2013 \u201eEvropa je zn\u00e1m\u00e1 t\u00edm, \u017ee d\u011bl\u00e1 kompromisy\u201c \u2013 ale nepop\u00edr\u00e1, \u017ee spalovac\u00ed pohon dos\u00e1hne sv\u00e9ho soumraku. AlixPartners spekuluje, \u017ee dieselov\u00e1 vozidla budou do roku 2030 tvo\u0159it pouze 3 % evropsk\u00e9ho trhu \u2013 z 18 % v roce 2021.<\/p>\n

Co se t\u00fd\u010de BEV, tak pro rok 2035 je n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f: Severn\u00ed Amerika, 59 % (ze 3 % v roce 2021); \u010c\u00edna, 56 % (z 12 % v roce 2021); a Evropa, 83 % (z 8 % v roce 2021). Pokud jsou tato \u010d\u00edsla p\u0159esn\u00e1, nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159echod na elektrick\u00fd pohon je prakticky samoz\u0159ejm\u00fd. Jen 40% n\u00e1r\u016fst po\u010dtu partnerstv\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdch na elektrifikaci vytvo\u0159en\u00fdch v\u00fdrobci v roce 2021 nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by to mohla b\u00fdt pravda. Hyundai je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem takov\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed dop\u0159edu, proto\u017ee postupn\u011b p\u0159e\u0161el od hodnotn\u00fdch nab\u00eddek k pr\u00e9miov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm EV.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdzkum AlixPartners nazna\u010duje ambivalentn\u00ed budoucnost automobilov\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu \u2013 takovou, kde p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti a krize \u00fazce souvis\u00ed, ale s velk\u00fdm mno\u017estv\u00edm d\u016fvod\u016f k optimismu, pokud bude p\u0159echod od spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f k elektrifikaci \u0159\u00edzen efektivn\u011b. Pokud se Wakefieldova a Kadesova anal\u00fdza uk\u00e1\u017ee jako p\u0159esn\u00e1, rok 2035, kdy BEV p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 50 % prodej\u016f na ka\u017ed\u00e9m hlavn\u00edm trhu, by mohl signalizovat za\u010d\u00e1tek konce pro spalovac\u00ed pohon. Zm\u011bna je m\u00e1lokdy snadn\u00e1 a spole\u010dnosti budou muset prok\u00e1zat siln\u00e9 a vizion\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 veden\u00ed, aby uspokojily vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se pot\u0159eby z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Zdroj: automotiveworld.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u011bhem 19. konference Global Automotive Outlook spole\u010dnosti AlixPartner se Mark Wakefield a Elmar Kades, spolup\u0159edsedov\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 praxe v celosv\u011btov\u00e9 konzulta\u010dn\u00ed firm\u011b AlixPartners, hovo\u0159ili o omezen\u00edch nab\u00eddky, uspokojov\u00e1n\u00ed popt\u00e1vky spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, v\u00fdrobn\u00edch probl\u00e9mech a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dominanci elektrifikace do roku 2035. V letech 2022 a\u017e 2026 m\u00e1 b\u00fdt investov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 546 miliard USD do elektrick\u00fdch vozidel […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":81,"featured_media":20732,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"kategorie_prispevku":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nElektrifikace by mohla znamenat konec spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f do roku 2035 | Autoklastr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/elektrifikace-by-mohla-znamenat-konec-spalovacich-motoru-do-roku-2035\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"cs_CZ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale:alternate\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Elektrifikace by mohla znamenat konec spalovac\u00edch motor\u016f do roku 2035\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"B\u011bhem 19. konference Global Automotive Outlook spole\u010dnosti AlixPartner se Mark Wakefield a Elmar Kades, spolup\u0159edsedov\u00e9 automobilov\u00e9 a pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 praxe v celosv\u011btov\u00e9 konzulta\u010dn\u00ed firm\u011b AlixPartners, hovo\u0159ili o omezen\u00edch nab\u00eddky, uspokojov\u00e1n\u00ed popt\u00e1vky spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, v\u00fdrobn\u00edch probl\u00e9mech a potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed dominanci elektrifikace do roku 2035. V letech 2022 a\u017e 2026 m\u00e1 b\u00fdt investov\u00e1no p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 546 miliard USD do elektrick\u00fdch vozidel […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/cs\/elektrifikace-by-mohla-znamenat-konec-spalovacich-motoru-do-roku-2035\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Autoklastr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-29T10:37:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-30T10:24:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/autoklastr.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1184\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"592\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Karel B\u0159emek\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Napsal(a)\" \/>\n\t<meta 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